UTU Kembangkan Model Mitigasi Kerentanan Petani Padi Pascabanjir di Aceh Utara

Thecuy.com, Aceh Utara — Severe flooding that inundated dozens of districts in Aceh Utara Regency at the end of 2025 resulted in approximately 12,537 hectares of rice fields failing to harvest. Data from the local Agriculture and Food Service indicates the disaster impacted the livelihoods of thousands of farmer households.

In response to the issue, Irham Maulana, a lecturer in the Agribusiness Study Program at Teuku Umar University (UTU), together with his team, conducted research to develop a more targeted mitigation model. The study, titled “Model Mitigasi Kerentanan Multidimensional Petani Padi Pasca Banjir di Aceh Utara: Integrasi Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (FsQCA) dan Pemetaan Spasial”, is funded by the BIMA 2026 Early Career Researcher Grant from the Ministry of Higher Education, Science, and Technology.

Pendekatan Baru dalam Analisis Kerentanan

To date, assessments of farmer vulnerability to disasters have largely relied on composite indices and linear regression, which assume a single, unidirectional cause‑effect relationship. According to Irham, the vulnerability experienced by farmers in the field is far more complex, arising from a combination of factors including economic conditions, social dynamics, institutional aspects, and post‑flood environmental damage.

To address this challenge, the team combined two analytical approaches. First, household vulnerability indices were calculated using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and mapped spatially with the Quantum GIS (QGIS) application. Second, the measurement results were further analyzed using FsQCA, a configurative method that is rarely employed in agricultural disaster research in Indonesia, especially in post‑flood contexts in Aceh.

“Existing methods have often lumped together the causes of vulnerability, despite each village having a distinct combination of problems. Using FsQCA, we aim to map these combinations one by one so that our recommendations can be truly tailored to each area’s specific conditions,” Irham explained.

Tahapan dan Target Penelitian

Before going into the field, the team held focused group discussions (FGDs) to develop research instruments and identify target locations. They then coordinated with the Aceh Utara District Government and the Local Disaster Management Agency (BPBD) to align data and existing disaster preparedness programs. Subsequently, the team visited farmer households in the affected districts to collect primary data through surveys and questionnaires.

The one‑year study is expected to produce three deliverables: a scientific article published in an accredited national journal, an Intellectual Property Rights (HKI) output in the form of a digital map of rice farmer vulnerability distribution, and a policy brief to be presented directly to the Aceh Utara District Government as a basis for disaster mitigation policy formulation.

“We hope this research will benefit the community, especially in Aceh Utara, and provide policy recommendations for local authorities to improve future mitigation efforts,” said Irham Maulana.

As a young lecturer, Irham hopes that this research will serve as a concrete reference for local authorities when designing more disaster‑resilient agricultural policies and will enrich the application of configurative methods in Indonesia’s disaster risk management studies, which have so far been limited.

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